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Accuracy of the ACS NSQIP Online Risk Calculator Depends on How You Look at It: Results from the United States Gastric Cancer Collaborative

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The objective of this study is to assess the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program online risk calculator for estimating risk after operation for gastric cancer using the United States Gastric Cancer Collaborative. Nine hundred and sixty-five patients who underwent resection of gastric adenocarcinoma between January 2000 and December 2012 at seven academic medical centers were included. Actual complication rates and outcomes for patients were compared. Most of the patients underwent total gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y reconstruction (404, 41.9%) and partial gastrectomy with gastrojejunostomy (239, 24.8%) or Roux-en-Y reconstruction (284, 29.4%). The C-statistic was highest for venous thromboembolism (0.690) and lowest for renal failure at (0.540). All C-statistics were less than 0.7. Brier scores ranged from 0.010 for venous thromboembolism to 0.238 for any complication. General estimates of risk for the cohort were variable in terms of accuracy. Improving the ability of surgeons to estimate preoperative risk for patients is critically important so that efforts at risk reduction can be personalized to each patient. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk calculator is a rapid and easy-to-use tool and validation of the calculator is important as its use becomes more common.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University College of Medicine, Wexner Medical Center and James Cancer Hospital, Columbus, Ohio, USA

Publication date: March 1, 2018

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  • The Southeastern Surgical Congress owns and publishes The American Surgeon monthly. It is the official journal of the Congress and the Southern California Chapter of the American College of Surgeons, which all members receive each month. The journal brings up to date clinical advances in surgical knowledge in a popular reference format. In addition to publishing papers presented at the annual meetings of the associated organizations, the journal publishes selected unsolicited manuscripts. If you have a manuscript you'd like to see published in The American Surgeon select "Information for Authors" from the Related Information options below. A Copyright Release Form must accompany all manuscripts submitted.
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