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Free Content Forecast Errors, Goodness, and Verification in Ocean Forecasting

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Verification is an essential part of the forecast process that provides guidance on the statistical behavior of the system and a framework by which a forecast can be assessed for its "goodness." Much of the framework applicable to ocean forecasting has been developed within the atmospheric community. A review of the available material is given with some commentary on its relevance in the context of ocean forecasting. A statistical theory is presented for errors in an ocean forecast system (both deterministic and ensemble) and for a number of verification metrics. Theoretical results are demonstrated with empirical models and results from an operational ocean forecast system. Some new results are presented comparing the mean absolute error and root mean square error and the inference hypothesis testing of ensemble forecast systems. The progress in ocean verification is discussed, as are advances in technology to analyze international verification databases.

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Keywords: FORECASTING; MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (MAE); ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR (RMSE); VERIFICATION

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: May 1, 2017

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  • The Journal of Marine Research, one of the oldest journals in American marine science, publishes peer-reviewed research articles covering a broad array of topics in physical, biological and chemical oceanography. Articles that deal with processes, as well as those that report significant observations, are welcome. Biological studies involving coupling between ecological and physical processes are preferred over those that report systematics. The editors strive always to serve authors and readers in the academic oceanographic community by publishing papers vital to the marine research in the long and rich tradition of the Sears Foundation for Marine Research. We welcome you to the Journal of Marine Research.
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