Estimated incidence of tuberculosis by capture-recapture in the Balearic Islands, 2010–2012
OBJECTIVE: To assess the completeness of TB surveillance, and to examine observed and estimated incidence rates (IR) compared with the period 2005–2007.
DESIGN: The completeness of TB surveillance was assessed using the capture-recapture method. Confidence intervals were calculated using log-linear models. Data sources were records of mandatory notifiable diseases, active hospital surveillance and computerised primary health care history.
RESULTS: Surveillance completeness for respiratory TB (R-TB) was 99.5%; it was 100% for non-respiratory TB (NR-TB). The overall observed IR was 16.32 cases/100 000 for all types of TB, 3.4 for NR-TB and 12.9 for R-TB. The estimated IR of TB all forms was 16.35/100 000 (95%CI 16.26–16.53), for NR-TB it was 3.4/100 000 (95%CI not calculated) and for R-TB it was 13.0/100 000 (95%CI 12.85–13.12). Surveillance completeness for R-TB during the period 2005–2007 was 65.2%; the observed IR was 22.6/100 000 and the estimated IR 31.3/10 000 (95%CI 25.0–37.7).
CONCLUSION: The similarity of observed and estimated IR during the period 2010–2012 indicates the validity of the surveillance and the use of improved systems such as electronic medical records in recent years.
Keywords: capture-recapture; completeness; epidemiology; surveillance
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: Faculty of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain 2: Epidemiology Service, Public Health Directorate of the Balearic Islands Regional Government, Palma, Spain 3: National Centre of Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
Publication date: 01 November 2014
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