How Crimea Pays: Media, Rallying 'Round the Flag, and Authoritarian Support

Contingent events, including the initiation of conflicts that trigger "rallying-'round-the-flag," can generate long-lasting public support and hence stability for authoritarian regimes, yet such effects remain poorly understood. The present study builds on the core logic of leading explanations of rallying in democracies to develop theory on how rallying works in authoritarian contexts. Unpacking the surge in President Vladimir Putin's popularity after Russia annexed Crimea, an original survey experiment finds that authoritarian rallying obtains partly through the activation of patriotic sentiment, but that, counterintuitively, the strongest rallying effects occur among those who watch the least television news. Potential sources of private information on the Crimea annexation's costs—including negative personal economic experiences and usage of social media—significantly dampen its positive effect on support for Putin.