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An ARDL Approach: How Robust Is Guatemala's International Tourism Demand?

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An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing to cointegration was used to test the robustness of Guatemala's tourism demand from Canada, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and the US. A robustness check was conducted on income, price, and travel cost variables. The magnitudes of the estimated income elasticity values differ from 1.41 (Panama) to 4.86 (Nicaragua). It is a greater luxury for Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Nicaragua, and the US than tourists from El Salvador, Honduras, and Panama. In the long run, a 1% steady growth in income in Canada and El Salvador would lead to an increase in tourist arrivals by 4.33% and 3.28%, respectively, ceteris paribus. Similar results, except for El Salvador and Panama, were found for the price and the cost of travel variables. This findings on the price and cost variables imply that its statistical significance does not depend on the measures used. The results are robust to the inclusion of a composite price or separated price, and exchange rate, price of oil or price of diesel, and related independent variables in the regression. These results can assist in policy formulation and management, strategic marketing, product development, and tourism planning.
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Keywords: AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL); COST OF TRAVEL; GUATEMALA; SHORT- AND LONG-RUN ELASTICITY VALUES; TOURISM PRICE

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: July 18, 2017

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  • Tourism Review International is a peer-reviewed journal that advances excellence in all fields of tourism research, promotes high-level tourism knowledge, and nourishes cultural awareness in all sectors of the tourism industry by integrating industry and academic perspectives. Its international and interdisciplinary nature ensures that the needs of those interested in tourism are served by documenting industry practices, discussing tourism management and planning issues, providing a forum for primary research and critical examinations of previous research, and by chronicling changing tourism patterns and trends at the local, regional and global scale.
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