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Determining Terrorism Proxies for the Relationship With Tourism Demand: A Global View

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This study examines the determinants of the relationship between terrorism and tourism, by testing different proxies to assess both the frequency and the severity of terrorist activity. The methodological approach includes implementing principal component analysis into four different sets of possible proxies for terrorism in order to examine their relationship with international tourism arrivals over the period 1998–2018. The dataset includes world tourist flows and terrorist incidents anywhere in the world in order to avoid regional effects. The empirical results show that all candidate proxies exhibit a long-run, negative relationship with tourism, while there is also an impact of tourism on terrorism, with conflicting directions between the short run and the long run. The findings suggest that increased terrorist activity may cause destination substitution in the short run but will have adverse effects in the long run. In addition, authorities should be prepared for a rise in terrorist incidents during periods with increased tourist flows. Finally, research on terrorism should take into account the qualitative characteristics of terrorist activities.

Keywords: PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; TERRORISM; TOURISM; TOURIST ARRIVALS; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: College of Business, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi - Khalifa City, UAE 2: College of Business, Al Ghurair University, Dubai Academic City, Dubai, UAE

Publication date: 18 May 2022

This article was made available online on 17 April 2021 as a Fast Track article with title: "Determining Terrorism Proxies for the Relationship with Tourism Demand: A Global View".

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  • Established in 1996, Tourism Analysis is an interdisciplinary journal that provides a platform for exchanging ideas and research in tourism and related fields. The journal aims to publish articles that explore a broad range of research subjects, including, but not limited to, the social, economic, cultural, environmental, and psychological aspects of tourism, consumer behavior in tourism, sustainable and responsible tourism, and effective operations, marketing, and management.

    Tourism Analysis focuses on both theoretical and applied research and strives to promote innovative approaches to understanding the complex and dynamic nature of tourism, its stakeholders, businesses, and its effects on society. The journal welcomes articles on innovative research topics and methodologies beyond the traditional theory-testing sciences, such as robotics, computational sciences, and data analytics.

    Our primary goal is to contribute to the development and advancement of new knowledge in tourism while fostering critical reflections and debates on the radical changes and evolution in tourism among scholars, practitioners, policymakers, and other stakeholders.
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