Achieving sustainable charcoal supply from woodlands to urban consumers in Kampala, Uganda

A bio-economic model is used recursively to analyze charcoal supply from the charcoal zone to urban consumers in Kampala. The model is a combination of a non-linear matrix forest growth model and an economic model with the objective of maximizing annual profit from charcoal production for the period 2003-2050. Standing stock and charcoal production for each time period are predicted for the base scenario, and alternate scenarios relating to technological advances and regulatory interventions. In the base scenario, harvest levels are above the sustainable yield, with 85 reduction in standing stock by the year 2050. A sudden collapse in charcoal supply occurs in the year 2019. Combining technological advances and regulatory interventions leads to more sustainable charcoal supply as compared to implementation of any single regime. Policy makers are therefore faced with the challenge of such implementations in order to achieve sustainable resource utilization.