Potential economic impact of limiting the international trade of timber as a phytosanitary measure

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of reducing the risk of exotic pest spread by curtailing the roundwood trade. The analysis compared predictions from 2006 to 2015, with and without a gradual ban of roundwood exports between 2006 and 2010. With a ban on roundwood trade, world consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 2.2 percent and 1.9 percent respectively. World value added would remain unchanged. However, producer revenues would decrease for the main log exporters (16 percent for the Russian Federation, and 10 percent for New Zealand). Value added would decrease most for the main log importers (13 percent in Japan, 7 percent in Korea, and 4 percent in China). Although the global cost of banning roundwood trade seems modest compared to the cost of catastrophic pest invasions, its varying effects on countries must be taken into account in forging equitable policies.