A hindcast simulation of storm surge and inundation from tropical cyclone Phalin, which made landfall at Odisha, India, on 12 October 2013, was carried out using ADCIRC model. Model-simulated inundation extent matched well with field surveys at Ganjam, Odisha, within a few days of landfall.
Further, the model reproduced the temporal evolution of the surge residual with respect to observations from a tide gauge at Paradip (correlation 0.8, RMSE 0.26 m). However, the model marginally underestimated the magnitude with respect to observations, which can be attributed to the lack
of wave setup in the model and uncertainty in wind and pressure information. The experiment also involved the use of two idealized scenarios, that is, variation of landfall timings with the ebbing and high tide phase. These scenarios were required for better understanding the sensitivity of
inundation to the phase of tide in the model. Simulation with landfall at flooding (ebbing) tide showed greater (lower) inundation than the real scenario. Results from idealized scenarios confirmed the significance of the accuracy needed in forecasting landfall time. Our results clearly indicate
that the overall performance of the model is good and therefore is of potential use as a tool to forewarn disaster management authorities.
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Document Type: Research Article
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India
India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India
October 2, 2015
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