A new cellular automata framework of urban growth modeling by incorporating statistical and heuristic methods

We develop a new geographical cellular automata (CA) modeling framework, named UrbanCA, through reconstructing the essential CA structure and incorporating nonspatial, spatial, and heuristic approaches. The new UrbanCA is featured by 1) the improvement of the CA modeling framework by reformulating relationships among CA components, 2) the development of two scaling parameters to adjust the effects of transition probability and neighborhood, 3) the incorporation of a variety of statistical and heuristic methods to construct transition rules, and 4) the inclusion of urban planning regulations and spatial heterogeneities to project future urban scenarios. To illustrate the effectiveness of UrbanCA, we calibrate a CA model using artificial bee colony (ABC) to simulate the past urban patterns and predict future scenarios in Shanghai of China. The results show that UrbanCA under different scaling parameters is comparable to CA-Markov (as a reference model) concerning the accuracy of the end-state and change simulations, and is better than CA-Markov regarding the driving factor’s ability to explain the modeling outcomes. UrbanCA provides more choices compared to existing CA software packages, and the models are readily calibrated elsewhere to simulate the dynamic urban growth and assess the resulting natural and socioeconomic impacts.