Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow
The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period.
We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human
activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% of the decreases in the wet season and 93% of the increases in the dry season) and 101% of the reductions in flood peaks in the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity
to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% of the increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.
Pearl River Basin;
Document Type: Research Article
Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China
School of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Glasgow, Dumfries, UK
School of Humanities and Social Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia
September 9, 2020