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A simple mechanistic model to interpret the effects of narcotics

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In this research we will show the advantages of using a time-independent dose metric in a mechanistic model to evaluate toxic effects for different narcotic compounds on different species. We will show how different already existing QSARs can be combined within a mechanistic framework to 1) make predictions of lethal thresholds; 2) show some limitations in the use of existing QSARs; 3) show how a mechanistic framework solves some conceptual problems in current approaches and 4) show how such a framework can be used to be of aid in an experimental setup in predicting the outcome of a survival experiment. The approach we chose is based on the simplest mechanistic model available, a scaled one-compartment model to describe uptake and elimination and hazard model to link the exposure to effects on survival. Within this theoretical framework a prediction for an internal threshold for effects on survival of 3 mmol/kg bw can be made, which should be similar for different species and independent of the partitioning characteristics of the toxicant. To demonstrate this, a threshold for 51 different species was derived, which indeed appeared to lie in a relatively small range, typically between 1 and 10 mmol/kg bw.
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Keywords: QSAR; critical body residue; mechanistic modelling; narcotics; no effect concentration; time

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK 2: Board for the Authorisation of Plant Protection Products and Biocides, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Publication date: March 4, 2015

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