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Joint analysis of occurrence and time to stability after entrance into the Italian labour market: an approach based on a Bayesian cure model with structured stochastic search variable selection

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Precarious employment is a serious social problem, especially in those countries, such as Italy, where there are limited benefits from social security. We investigate this phenomenon by analysing the initial part of the career of employees starting with unstable contracts for a panel of Italian workers. Our aim is to estimate the probability of getting a stable job and to detect factors influencing both this probability and the duration of precariousness. To answer these questions, we use an ad hoc mixture cure rate model in a Bayesian framework.
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Keywords: Bayesian methods; mixture cure models; model selection; precariousness; structured variable selection; unobserved heterogeneity

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Dipartimento di Malattie Infettive e Sanità Pubblica,Sapienza - Università di Roma, Roma, Italy 2: Dipartimento di Matematica,Università di Roma - Tor Vergata, Roma, Italy 3: Dipartimento di Economia,Facoltá di Scienze Politiche; Universitá degli Studi di Teramo, Teramo, Italy

Publication date: November 1, 2011

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