There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases are complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox among rodent populations, a combined
mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. An MCMC algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture–recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the
spread of the cowpox virus.
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Document Type: Research Article
MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health,University Forvie Site, Robison WayCambridgeCB2 0SR, UK
School of Mathematics,University of Manchester, Oxford RoadManchesterM13 9PL, UK
August 1, 2011