Predictive factors for remission and death in 73 patients with autoimmune hepatitis in Japan

The prognosis of patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) has not been clearly defined. The aim of this study was to define the prognostic factors of AIH in a population with long-term follow-up in Japan. Seventy-three patients who were diagnosed as having type 1 AIH between January, 1972 - August, 1999 were enrolled in this study. Initial treatment included prednisolone (PSL) (n=62), other drug regimens (n=7), and none (n=4). We examined the relation between several factors obtained at diagnosis in relation to disease activity found at the final observation point (January, 2000 - April, 2000). Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression were used for statistical analysis. During the observation period, 8 patients died of the following: hepatic failure (n=4), hepatocellular carcinoma (n=1), severe infection (n=1), and unknown causes (n=2). At the end point, the number of patients in complete remission was 13, those with a normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level requiring some treatment was 35, and those with an abnormal ALT level despite medication was 17. Factors related to remission were total bilirubin (TB) (Odds ratio, 0.87), and immunoglobulin G (IgG) (Odds ratio, 1.00). Factors related to death were the aspartate aminotransaminase (AST)/ALT ratio (Odds ratio, 11.67) and response to initial PSL regimen (Odds ratio, 0.03). The results of this study show an importance of achieving a good PSL response at onset, and that initial TB, the AST/ALT ratio, and IgG levels are useful for therapeutic strategy.