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The case study of bura of 1st and 3rd February 2007

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Two cases when the operational forecast seriously underestimated the wind speed maxima are analysed. The first one in the night between 1st and 2nd February 2007 and the second one in the evening of 3rd February 2007. The two cases are analyzed using measured data from Split and Makarska automatic stations as well as vertical soundings from Zagreb and Zadar and ALADIN model simulations. For the purpose of this study, ALADIN 72 hour forecast was run on 2 km resolution using the complete set of physics parametrizations, hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic dynamics. Results show the potential benefit of nonhydrostatic dynamics for operational forecast does not lie in improvement of the 10 m wind forecast as much as in forecasting clear air turbulence associated with the lee waves.

Es werden zwei Wetterlagen, in denen die operationelle Vorhersage die maximalen Geschwindigkeiten der Bora an der kroatischen Küste unterschätzt hat, untersucht. Die erste ereignete sich in der Nacht vom 1. zum 2. Februar 2007, die andere am Abend des 3. Februar 2007. Zur Untersuchung werden die Messdaten von den automatischen Stationen in Split und Makarska sowie die Radiosondenaufstiege von Zagreb und Simulationen mit dem Modell ALADIN benutzt. Mit dem Modell ALADIN werden 72 Stunden-Vorhersagen mit 2 km Auflösung unter Benutzung des kompletten Satzes physikalischer Parametrisierungen mit hydrostatischer und nicht-hydrostatischer Dynamik gerechnet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der potentielle Nutzen der nichthydrostatischen Dynamik für die operationelle Vorhersage nicht so sehr in der Verbesserung der 10 m Windvorhersage liegt, sondern vielmehr in der Vorhersage der mit den Leewellen verbundenen “clear air turbulence”.
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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: October 1, 2010

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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