Political-economic context and partisan strategies in the German federal elections, 1990-2002

With the intensifying crisis of the German political-economic model, federal elections signal the beginning of a polarising realignment that rallies beneficiaries of the status quo, particularly white collar employees in non-profit sectors, individuals with weak human capital endowments, and the elderly living off public pensions, to the more social-protectionist social democrats and, to a declining extent, the Greens. In contrast, voters situated in the market-exposed sector and with strong professional skills to compete in that sector opt for liberals and Christian democrats, who begin to sharpen their market-liberal profile. In 1998 and 2002, the social-protectionist camp prevailed, but its opponents may win in the future if economic conditions worsen and the governing parties fail to deliver reform.