In toll-road projects there is exogenous demand risk. Thus, the government may be required to provide a minimum-traffic guarantee to induce potential private partners to participate. The government must offer the most appropriate level of guarantee while also justifying this controversial
fiscal policy tool to society. This study demonstrates the use of financial modeling, risk analysis, and economic evaluation in a toll-road project in Turkey, contributing to the narrowing of a capacity gap in the field. One criterion is proposed to produce a socially equitable guarantee level.
This case study exemplifies the policy implications discussed in the conclusions, with a critical look at the public–private partnerships within the context of the neoliberal economic development theory.
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