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The British gambler's fallacy

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People facing choices under uncertainty, and gamblers in particular, are often subject to statistical fallacies. This paper explores the hypothesis that if lotto players were subject to the 'gambler's fallacy', predictable fluctuations in the number of jackpots would occur. Evidence, based on a Poisson regression model in which the number of winning bets is conditional on the history of draws, indicates that number selection in the UK is only marginally affected by the history of draws.
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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 01 October 2004

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