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Mapping areas of future urban growth in the Mgeni catchment

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Due to increases in population and migration to cities, the areas of urban land use are increasing. This study models the plausible future urban growth in the Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, using the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model (SLEUTH). The SLEUTH acronym stands for the input layers required for the model viz. Slope, Land use, Excluded areas, Urban Extent, Transport routes and Hillshade. The purpose of this study is to predict the scale and location of future urban growth, for use in hydrological impact assessment studies. SLEUTH was calibrated and applied to the Mgeni catchment to project future urban areas. The results revealed, when assessing the 95–100% probability class, that the Henley, Pietermaritzburg and Durban areas would experience the highest urban growth in the Mgeni catchment by the year 2050. It was concluded that the SLEUTH Model is suitable to account for the scale and location of future urban growth in the Mgeni catchment.
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Keywords: Mgeni catchment; SLEUTH Urban Growth Model; South Africa; land use change; urbanisation

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: School of Agriculture, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermarizburg, 3209, South Africa

Publication date: June 3, 2014

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