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Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations

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ABSTRACT

The negative impacts of surface ozone (O3) on vegetation are determined by external exposure, leaf gas exchange and plant antioxidant defence capacity, all dependent on climate and CO2 concentrations. In this study the influence of climate change on simulated stomatal O3 uptake of a generic crop and a generic deciduous tree at ten European sites was investigated, using the LRTAP Mapping Manual stomatal flux model. O3 concentrations are calculated by a chemistry transport model (MATCH) for three 30-yr time-windows (1961–1990, 2021–2050, 2071–2100), with constant precursor emissions and meteorology from a regional climate model (RCA3). Despite substantially increased modelled future O3 concentrations in central and southern Europe, the flux-based risk for O3 damage to vegetation is predicted to remain unchanged or decrease at most sites, mainly as a result of projected reductions in stomatal conductance under rising CO2 concentrations. Drier conditions in southern Europe are also important for this result. At northern latitudes, the current parameterisation of the stomatal conductance model suggest O3 uptake to be mainly limited by temperature. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for the influences by climate and CO2 on stomatal O3 uptake, and of developing their representation in models, for risk assessment involving climate change.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden 2: Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 461, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden 3: Swedish Environmental Research Institute, P.O. Box 5302, SE-40014 Gothenburg, Sweden

Publication date: January 1, 2011

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