State Weakness, al-Qa'ida, and Rebel Governance: Yemen from the Arab Spring until 2022

As the Arab Spring arrived in Yemen, al-Qa'ida joined the insurgency, conquered territories, and governed them. Eleven years later, I aim to assess whether the conditions that led to the group's emergence as both insurgent and governor have changed. I argue that, while al-Qa'ida is weaker, Yemen remains deeply vulnerable with a government in exile, an ongoing civil war, and armed groups in control of extensive territory. In this context, a resurgence of al-Qa'ida cannot be excluded.