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Free Content Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport

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This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the services; and reliable predictions of demand. These two conditions are the main objectives of this paper. Given a monthly database, the authors address the first objective using a causal econometric model. As a baseline for forecasting comparisons, they also use new variants of univariate unobserved components models. Forecasting evaluation is based on a variety of accuracy measures to avoid misleading conclusions.

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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 01 January 2006

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  • JTEP is international both in terms of authors and readership. Since it first appeared, more than 650 papers have been published from Europe, North America, the Pacific Rim/Australasia, Africa, Asia, and South America. This international variety is also reflected in the readership.

    Published four times a year, the journal covers all modes of transport and a wide variety of economic themes, including: Passenger Transport, Freight Transport, Shipping, Aviation, Transport Infrastructure, Environment & Energy, Traffic, Planning and Policy, Safety, Costs & Pricing, Competition, Evaluation, Productivity, Demand & Elasticities, Service Quality, Economies of Scale, Economics Regulation and Choice.

    A complete indexing and article service is available FREE from 1967 to 2000

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