100 years of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Australia: the role of tobacco consumption
OBJECTIVES: To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia.
METHODS: Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality.
RESULTS: Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females.
CONCLUSIONS: Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Publication date: December 1, 2012
The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease publishes articles on all aspects of lung health, including public health-related issues such as training programmes, cost-benefit analysis, legislation, epidemiology, intervention studies and health systems research. The IJTLD is dedicated to the continuing education of physicians and health personnel and the dissemination of information on tuberculosis and lung health world-wide.
Certain IJTLD articles are selected for translation into French, Spanish, Chinese or Russian. They are available on the Union website
- Editorial Board
- Information for Authors
- Subscribe to this Title
- International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
- Public Health Action
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites