Skip to main content

Estimating tuberculosis case detection rate in resource-limited countries: a capture-recapture study in Egypt

Buy Article:

$34.78 + tax (Refund Policy)

SETTING: Most countries endemic and highly endemic for tuberculosis (TB) still do not have reliable TB surveillance systems. Indirect estimation of TB incidence is needed to monitor the performance of the National Tuberculosis Programme (NTP) in the context of the World Health Organization implementation and impact targets for TB control.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the case detection rate (CDR) of all TB cases and sputum smear-positive TB cases in Egypt in 2007.

METHODS: Record linkage and three-source capture-recapture analysis of data collected through active prospective longitudinal surveillance within the public and private non-NTP sector in four Egyptian governorates selected by stratified cluster random sampling.

RESULTS: For all TB cases, the estimated CDR of NTP surveillance and completeness of case ascertainment after record linkage was respectively 55% (95%CI 46–68) and 62% (95%CI 52–77). For sputum smear-positive TB cases, these proportions were respectively 66% (95%CI 55–75) and 72% (95%CI 60–82).

CONCLUSION: This pilot study shows that representative sampling, prospective surveillance in the non-NTP sector, record linkage and capture-recapture analysis can improve CDR estimation. For global, standardised and reliable use, this methodology should be further developed. Until then, all resource-limited countries should strengthen their national surveillance systems in the context of the Stop TB strategy.

Keywords: capture-recapture analysis; record linkage; resource-limited; surveillance; tuberculosis

Document Type: Regular Paper

Affiliations: 1: Stop TB Unit, World Health Organization, Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, Cairo, Egypt 2: Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London, UK 3: National Tuberculosis Control Programme, Cairo, Egypt 4: Stop TB Unit, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland 5: Tuberculosis Control Section, Department of Infectious Disease Control, Rotterdam Public Health Service, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Publication date: June 1, 2010

More about this publication?
  • The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (IJTLD) is for clinical research and epidemiological studies on lung health, including articles on TB, TB-HIV and respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, asthma, COPD, child lung health and the hazards of tobacco and air pollution. Individuals and institutes can subscribe to the IJTLD online or in print – simply email us at [email protected] for details.

    The IJTLD is dedicated to understanding lung disease and to the dissemination of knowledge leading to better lung health. To allow us to share scientific research as rapidly as possible, the IJTLD is fast-tracking the publication of certain articles as preprints prior to their publication. Read fast-track articles.

  • Editorial Board
  • Information for Authors
  • Subscribe to this Title
  • International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
  • Public Health Action
  • Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content