Skip to main content

Predicting tuberculosis treatment outcome in a low-incidence area

Buy Article:

$34.78 + tax (Refund Policy)

SETTING: Based on the cohort of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases resident between 2001 and 2005 in the Piedmont region of Italy, this study estimated the effect of selected determinants on the success of standardised short-course chemotherapy (SSCC).

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of unsuccessful treatment of PTB and to generate a nomogram to assist treating physicians and public health authorities with the identification of cases needing close follow-up.

RESULTS: Overall, 1564 cases were identified. Among new cases, predictors of successful treatment outcome were sex (women vs. men, aOR 0.48, 95%CI 0.37–0.63), geographic origin (EU vs. non-EU countries, aOR 0.43, 95%CI 0.31–0.60) and treatment setting (out-patient vs. in-patient services and unknown setting, aOR 0.2, 95%CI 0.16–0.26). Predictors of unsuccessful outcome were long-term residency status (homeless vs. residential, aOR 9.91, 95%CI 4.38–22.38) and age (for each year, aOR 1.02, 95%CI 1.01–1.03).

CONCLUSION: Using a limited number of predictors, the authors designed a nomogram predicting the individual probability of unfavourable SSCC. In principle, this approach is generalisable to other settings and the nomogram can be calibrated on local data to ensure appropriate case management and support targeted treatment follow-up.

Keywords: cohort analysis; epidemiology; surveillance; treatment; tuberculosis

Document Type: Regular Paper

Affiliations: 1: Division of Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care, Imperial College, London, UK; Cancer Epidemiology Unit, CPO Piemonte and Amedeo Avogadro University, Novara, Italy 2: Cancer Epidemiology Unit, CPO Piemonte and University of Turin, Turin, Italy 3: CPA ASL 4, Regional Reference Centre for Tuberculosis Prevention, Turin, Italy

Publication date: December 1, 2008

More about this publication?
  • The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (IJTLD) is for clinical research and epidemiological studies on lung health, including articles on TB, TB-HIV and respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, asthma, COPD, child lung health and the hazards of tobacco and air pollution. Individuals and institutes can subscribe to the IJTLD online or in print – simply email us at [email protected] for details.

    The IJTLD is dedicated to understanding lung disease and to the dissemination of knowledge leading to better lung health. To allow us to share scientific research as rapidly as possible, the IJTLD is fast-tracking the publication of certain articles as preprints prior to their publication. Read fast-track articles.

  • Editorial Board
  • Information for Authors
  • Subscribe to this Title
  • International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
  • Public Health Action
  • Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content