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Free Content Breteau Index threshold levels indicating risk for dengue transmission in areas with low Aedes infestation

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Summary We used Breteau Indices to – retrospectively – predict dengue transmission. The presence of one house block (on average about 50 houses) with a Breteau Index ≥4 in a neighbourhood (a block plus the surrounding blocks in a radius of 100 m) predicted transmission at the latter level with 81.8% sensitivity and 73.3% specificity during the first month of the Havana 2001 dengue outbreak. This result corroborates the external validity of this threshold, at least in situations with low infestations levels.

Nous avons utilisé les indices Breteau afin de prévoir rétrospectivement la transmission de la dengue. La présence d’un block de maisons (50 maisons en moyenne) avec un indice Breteau ≥ 4 dans un quartier (i.e. un block plus les blocks environnants dans un rayon de 100m) a prédit la transmission à ce niveau avec une sensibilité de 81,8% et une spécificité de 73,3% au cours du premier mois de l’épidémie de dengue de 2001 à La Havane. Ce résultat confirme la validité externe de ce seuil, au moins dans des situations avec des niveaux d’infestation faible.
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Keywords: Aedes aegypti control; Cuba; control de Aedes aegypti; dengue; indices larvaires; larval indices; lutte contre Aedes aegypti; riesgo de transmisión; risque de transmission; surveillance; transmission risk; vigilancia; índices larvales

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1:  Tropical Medicine Institute ‘Pedro Kouri’, Havana City, Cuba 2:  Center for Statistics, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium 3:  Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Disease Control Unit, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium

Publication date: February 1, 2010

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