# Worldwide FST Estimates Relative to Five Continental‐Scale Populations

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We estimate the population genetics parameter ${F}_{ST}$ (also referred to as the fixation index) from short tandem repeat (STR) allele frequencies, comparing many worldwide human subpopulations at approximately the national level with continental‐scale populations. ${F}_{ST}$ is commonly used to measure population differentiation, and is important in forensic DNA analysis to account for remote shared ancestry between a suspect and an alternative source of the DNA. We estimate ${F}_{ST}$ comparing subpopulations with a hypothetical ancestral population, which is the approach most widely used in population genetics, and also compare a subpopulation with a sampled reference population, which is more appropriate for forensic applications. Both estimation methods are likelihood‐based, in which ${F}_{ST}$ is related to the variance of the multinomial‐Dirichlet distribution for allele counts. Overall, we find low ${F}_{ST}$ values, with posterior 97.5 percentiles $<3%$ when comparing a subpopulation with the most appropriate population, and even for inter‐population comparisons we find ${F}_{ST}$ $<5%$. These are much smaller than single nucleotide polymorphism‐based inter‐continental ${F}_{ST}$ estimates, and are also about half the magnitude of STR‐based estimates from population genetics surveys that focus on distinct ethnic groups rather than a general population. Our findings support the use of ${F}_{ST}$ up to 3% in forensic calculations, which corresponds to some current practice.
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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: November 1, 2014

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