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TESTING FOR PRO-POORNESS OF GROWTH, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

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This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro-poor. We first review different definitions of pro-poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro-poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro-poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti-poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro-poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro-poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.
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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Département d'économique and CIRPÉE, Université Laval, Canada 2: GRÉDI, Université de Sherbrooke, Canada 3: Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Canada

Publication date: December 1, 2009

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