Skip to main content
padlock icon - secure page this page is secure

TESTING BAYESIAN UPDATING WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESS TOP 25

Buy Article:

$52.00 + tax (Refund Policy)

Most studies of Bayesian updating use experimental data. This article uses a non‐experimental data source—the voter ballots of the Associated Press college football poll, a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams—to test Bayes' rule as a descriptive model. I find that voters sometimes underreact to new information, sometimes overreact, and at other times their behavior is consistent with estimated Bayesian updating. A unifying explanation for the disparate results is that voters are more responsive to information that is more salient (i.e., noticeable). In particular, voters respond in a “more Bayesian” way to losses and wins over ranked teams, as compared to wins over unranked teams, and voters seem unaware of subtle variation in the precision of priors. (JEL D80, D83, D84)
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Article Media
No Metrics

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331. Phone 541 737 1477, Fax: 541 737 5917

Publication date: April 1, 2013

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more