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GROWTH AND FLUCTUATIONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE OECD, 1964–1984

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Time series for industrial production covering the period 1964 to 1984 for 16 countries of the oecd are analyzed in order to measure the trends in production and to study the diffusion patterns of cyclical fluctuations within the system. The dramatic growth at the beginning of the period is unequally distributed, favouring industrializing countries, such as Greece and Spain, as well as Japan, which joins the ranks of oecd leading nations during this period. Along with Germany, Japan becomes a key indicator of the system as a whole, its short term performance being highly correlated with most countries of the oecd, whereas that of the U.S.A. becomes quasi‐isolated.

On a analysé les séries chronologiques de la production industrielle pour la péride 1964 à 1984 pour seize pays de l'ocde afin d'évaluer les tendances, et étudier la structure des variations cycliques au sein du système. La croissance vertigineuse au début de période s'avère inégalement distribuée, favorisant les pays en voie d'in‐dustrialisation tels que la Grèce et l'Espagne ainsi que le Japon qui rejoint alors le rang des pays les plus impor‐tants. C'est d'ailleurs le Japon qui constitue avec l'Alle‐magne l'indicateur clé pour tous les pays de l'ocde, sa performance à court terme reflétant sensiblement la situation de l'ocde dans son ensemble, alors que celle des Etats‐Unis apparat isolée.
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Document Type: Original Article

Affiliations: Intergovernmental Committee on Urban and Regional Research, Suite 301, 150 Eglinton Ave. East, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P 1E8

Publication date: March 1, 1990

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