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Open Access Spatio-statistical Predictions of Vernal Pool Locations in Massachusetts

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Vernal pools are small, isolated, depressions that experience cyclical periods of inundation and drying. Many species have evolved strategies to utilize the unique characteristics of vernal pools; however, their small size, seasonal nature, and isolation from other, larger water bodies, suggest increased risk of damage or loss by development. The objectives of this research were to statistically determine physical predictors of vernal pool presence, and subsequently, to represent the output cartographically for use as a conservation tool. Logistic regression and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methods were used to identify important predictors of 405 known vernal pools across northeastern Massachusetts. The CART models performed most favorably, achieving map accuracies as high as 97 percent and providing a set of rules for vernal pool prediction. It is important to note that we observed significant discrepancies between model accuracy and map accuracy, illustrating the pitfall of relying on statistical metrics alone (e.g., R2 values) to assess the quality of spatial analyses.

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 01 January 2013

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  • The official journal of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing - the Imaging and Geospatial Information Society (ASPRS). This highly respected publication covers all facets of photogrammetry and remote sensing methods and technologies.

    Founded in 1934, the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) is a scientific association serving over 7,000 professional members around the world. Our mission is to advance knowledge and improve understanding of mapping sciences to promote the responsible applications of photogrammetry, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and supporting technologies.
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