Modeling the Population Health Impacts of Heated Tobacco Products in Japan

Objective: We evaluated the potential population health impact of launching heated tobacco products (HTP) in Japan. Method: We use a modeling approach to project the effects of HTP use in overall mortality up to 2100 and compare those projections against a baseline scenario based on smoking rates pre-HTP launch, ie, smoking only. The model was informed using data from publicly available sources and the literature, including population size, yearly deaths, and smoking prevalence with the initial year of 2004, and births and migration from 2004 to 2065. Transitions between products were estimated from cross-sectional population surveys in Japan. Result: In a worst-case scenario, population health gains would be seen with HTPs risk about 50% lower risk than smoking. Assuming equal risk for dual use and smoking, HTP risk would need to be at least 10% lower than smoking to achieve a population health benefit by 2100. Potential reduction in life-years lost with the introduction of HTPs was 13 million by 2100 compared with smoking only. Conclusions: In credible scenarios, substantial population harm reduction will follow the introduction of HTPs in Japan.