Determinants of Democracy in the Muslim World

This article, which examines the factors and processes that account for the negative correlation between Muslim majority states and democratization, focuses on the institutionalization of Islam in the state. I assess the effect of this factor along with other determinants on regime type from 1990 to 2002 in the population of fifty-one Muslim-majority states, using a multilevel mixed effects linear regression model and path analysis. The analysis shows that although Islam is arguably the most conspicuous factor characterizing this set of states, the institutionalization of Islam in the state is not an impediment to democratization. Instead, factors particularly associated with the Middle East and North Africa, as well as a communist legacy, delay meaningful democratic reform. The results of various regression models suggest that the states in this region with a better propensity toward democratic change are Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen.