Iraqi GDP since 2003: some simple calculations

This paper attempts to assess the economic consequences for Iraq of its 2003 invasion. Using revised GDP data (available only back to 1997), it estimates the effects of oil price changes, the invasion, and the threat of invasion on GDP growth rates. Even in a short time series, the invasion is found to be significant at the 10 level, and is associated with a halving of real GDP in 2003. Almost alone among its neighbours and OPEC members, Iraqi real GDP correlates negatively with oil prices over 19972004, a symptom of the economic distortions faced by its economy. While Iraq has received considerable attention from international institutions following the 2003 invasion, its subsequent troubled economic performance should not surprise in light of the transition recessions of the post-Soviet countries.