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Home / GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, Volume 12, Number 4

Wetter- und Klimastürme

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Author: Liniger, Mark A.

Source: GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, Volume 12, Number 4, 2003, pp. 260-265(6)

Publisher: oekom verlag

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14512/gaia.12.4.9

Extreme weather and climate conditions can cause widespread damage to infrastructure and natural resources. This work addresses the predictability of two such events, the winter storm "Lothar" in 1999 and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Both phenomena illustrate how the involved processes are interrelated in a non-linear manner. The predictability of such events is limited. By means of the simple dynamical Lorenz system, we show how predictability can be improved by probabilistic forecasts, which can be applied to various kinds of weather and climate predictions. In general, the probabilistic approach increases the benefit significantly compared to a single deterministic forecast. However, the interpretation of probabilistic forecasts needs to be handled with care and their usability depends on the particular application.

Keywords: EL NINO; LORENZ ATTRACTOR; LOTHAR; PREDICTABILITY; PROBABLISTIC FORECASTS

Document Type: Regular Paper

Publication date: 01 November 2003

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  • GAIA is a peer-reviewed inter- and transdisciplinary journal for scientists and other interested parties concerned with the causes and analyses of environmental and sustainability problems and their solutions.

    Environmental problems cannot be solved by one academic discipline. The complex natures of these problems require cooperation across disciplinary boundaries. Since 1991, GAIA has offered a well-balanced and practice-oriented forum for transdisciplinary research. GAIA offers first-hand information on state of the art environmental research and on current solutions to environmental problems. Well-known editors, advisors, and authors work to ensure the high quality of the contributions found in GAIA and a unique transdisciplinary dialogue – in a comprehensible style.

    GAIA is an ISI-journal, listed in the Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Science Citation Index and in Current Contents/Social and Behavioral Sciences.

    All contributions undergo a double-blind peer review.

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