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Uncertainty Analysis in QUAL2E Model of Zayandeh-Rood River

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Abstract:

Water-quality modeling and prediction is a complicated task because of inherent randomness and uncertainties associated with various processes and variables throughout the stream environment and the lack of appropriate data. Hence, the results of mathematical models are always approximate, lying within an uncertainty. This paper describes and demonstrates the application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's water-quality model, QUAL2E-UNCAS, to the Zayandeh-Rood River in Iran. First-order reliability analysis is used to examine the variability of predicted water-quality parameters of total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, and biochemical oxygen demand. This analysis also determines key sources of uncertainty affecting prediction of the water-quality parameters. The results show that reliability analysis can help water-quality modelers and planners to quantify the reliability of the water-quality predictions and to carry out more efficiently planned sampling and data collection programs to reduce model-prediction uncertainty.

Keywords: QUAL2E model; Zayandeh-Rood River; first-order reliability analysis; streamwater quality; uncertainty analysis

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2175/106143005X41861

Publication date: 2005-05-01

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  • Water Environment Research® (WER®) publishes peer-reviewed research papers, research notes, state-of-the-art and critical reviews on original, fundamental and applied research in all scientific and technical areas related to water quality, pollution control, and management. An annual Literature Review provides a review of published books and articles on water quality topics from the previous year.

    Published as: Sewage Works Journal, 1928 - 1949; Sewage and Industrial Wastes, 1950 - 1959; Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, 1959 - Oct 1989; Research Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, Nov 1989 - 1991; Water Environment Research, 1992 - present.
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