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Statistical Distributions of Uncertainty and Variability in Activated Sludge Model Parameters

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Abstract:

All models used in activated sludge design and analysis use parameters to characterize process performance. The values of these parameters are often assumed based on default values recommended in the literature, but to date, no quantitative estimates of the parameter uncertainties have been published. Similarly, little attention has been given to quantifying site-specific parameter variability, even though its occurrence has been observed several times in the literature. In this paper, universal uncertainty distributions of the model parameters from Activated Sludge Model No. 1 are developed from a database of parameter values reported in the literature using Bayesian statistics. Site-specific distributions of parameter variability were developed using the same techniques. All parameter distributions developed demonstrated that significant uncertainty and variability exist, which could lead to overdesign or plant failure if not considered during the design process.

Keywords: ACTIVATED SLUDGE MODEL NO. 1; ACTIVATED SLUDGE MODELS; BAYESIAN STATISTICS; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2175/106143004X141906

Publication date: 2004-11-01

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  • Water Environment Research (WER) is published monthly, including an annual Literature Review. A subscription to WER includes access to the latest content back to 1992, as well as access to fast track articles. An individual subscription is valid for 12 months from month of purchase.

    Water Environment Research� (WER�) publishes peer-reviewed research papers, research notes, state-of-the-art and critical reviews on original, fundamental and applied research in all scientific and technical areas related to water quality, pollution control, and management. An annual Literature Review provides a review of published books and articles on water quality topics from the previous year.

    Published as: Sewage Works Journal, 1928 - 1949; Sewage and Industrial Wastes, 1950 - 1959; Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, 1959 - Oct 1989; Research Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, Nov 1989 - 1991; Water Environment Research, 1992 - present.
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