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Statistical Distributions of Uncertainty and Variability in Activated Sludge Model Parameters

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All models used in activated sludge design and analysis use parameters to characterize process performance. The values of these parameters are often assumed based on default values recommended in the literature, but to date, no quantitative estimates of the parameter uncertainties have been published. Similarly, little attention has been given to quantifying site-specific parameter variability, even though its occurrence has been observed several times in the literature. In this paper, universal uncertainty distributions of the model parameters from Activated Sludge Model No. 1 are developed from a database of parameter values reported in the literature using Bayesian statistics. Site-specific distributions of parameter variability were developed using the same techniques. All parameter distributions developed demonstrated that significant uncertainty and variability exist, which could lead to overdesign or plant failure if not considered during the design process.
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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 01 November 2004

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    Water Environment Research (WER) publishes peer-reviewed research papers, research notes, state-of-the-art and critical reviews on original, fundamental and applied research in all scientific and technical areas related to water quality, pollution control, and management. An annual Literature Review provides a review of published books and articles on water quality topics from the previous year.

    Published as: Sewage Works Journal, 1928 - 1949; Sewage and Industrial Wastes, 1950 - 1959; Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, 1959 - Oct 1989; Research Journal Water Pollution Control Federation, Nov 1989 - 1991; Water Environment Research, 1992 - present.
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