Why Rare Storms Occur so Frequently and What to Do About It
Many people wonder why our cities have experienced so many X-year (fill in the blank for X) recurrence interval storms recently. The public has a hard time believing us when we report the third 10-year recurrence interval storm in seven years. We don't understand it ourselves. Do the statistics experts who develop precipitation frequency estimates really know what they are talking about? This paper identifies three reasons for the perceived higher than expected frequency of rare storms: 1) thinking regionally instead of considering just a single point, 2) rounding to the nearest X-year storm instead of using a threshold, and 3) ignoring storm duration. Numerical testing shows 71 to 700 percent increase in the perceived frequency of rare storms attributed to these reasons. Suggestions are offered for possible changes to rare storms classification to reduce public misperception.
No Reference information available - sign in for access.
No Citation information available - sign in for access.
No Supplementary Data.
No Article Media
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: 2011-01-01
WEF Members: Sign in (right panel) with your IngentaConnect user name and password to receive complimentary access. Access begins 12 months after the conference or event
- Subscribe to this Title
- Membership Information
- About WEF Proceedings
- WEFTEC Conference Information
- Learn about the many other WEF member benefits and join today
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites