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MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO MANAGE RISKS AND IMPROVE CIP PLANNING AND BUDGETING

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Abstract:

Overview

As part of the fiscal year (FY) 2005/2006 budgeting effort, Orange County Sanitation District (OCSD) incorporated the use of a Monte Carlo analysis. The analysis is the final step of a structured effort by OCSD to assess risk events and their associated impacts, and the likely budget amounts for risk. The carefully structured effort resulted in a 3 percent budget increase or approximately $66 million, raising the $2.371 billion program to a total of $2.437 billion. The determination of how to budget to cover the cost of risk impacts is a direct output of the Monte Carlo analysis.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2175/193864706783789833

Publication date: 2006-01-01

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