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Estimating survival and recovery probabilities for Arabian Gulf sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) from tag recovery studies

Author: Hoolihan, John P.

Source: Bulletin of Marine Science, Volume 79, Number 3, November 2006 , pp. 577-587(11)

Publisher: University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

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Conventional tagging mark-recovery data for 1686 releases and 85 dead recoveries from Arabian gulf sailfish [Istiophorus platypterus (Shaw in Shaw and Nodder, 1792)] were used to estimate conditional survival (S) and tag recovery (f) probabilities in program mark. An a priori approach was used to construct seven plausible models wherein the S and f parameter probabilities were constrained to be constant or allowed to vary over years. Models were ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion weights (AIC c ) and model probabilities were computed. There was some model selection uncertainty and the best model had a 0.619 probability of being the so-called true model for the parameters estimated. The best model produced the best estimated average annual survival over the 5 yr study at 0.375 (SE = 0.324, 95% CI = 0.252–0.516. A more robust multimodel inference was made by averaging the seven models, producing an estimated average annual survival of 0.382 (SE = 0.068, 95%CI = 0.246–0.518). Post hoc analyses of five additional models incorporating Iranian sailfish catch data as covariates showed no relationship between the Iranian catch and survival probability, but did show a positive relationship between the Iranian catch and recovery probability, suggesting that if catch was high then recovery probability was also high.

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: November 1, 2006

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  • The Bulletin of Marine Science is dedicated to the dissemination of high quality research from the world's oceans. All aspects of marine science are treated by the Bulletin of Marine Science, including papers in marine biology, biological oceanography, fisheries, marine affairs, applied marine physics, marine geology and geophysics, marine and atmospheric chemistry, and meteorology and physical oceanography.
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