Estimating survival and recovery probabilities for Arabian Gulf sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) from tag recovery studies
Conventional tagging mark-recovery data for 1686 releases and 85 dead recoveries from Arabian gulf sailfish [Istiophorus platypterus (Shaw in Shaw and Nodder, 1792)] were used to estimate conditional survival (S) and tag recovery (f) probabilities in program mark. An a priori approach was used to construct seven plausible models wherein the S and f parameter probabilities were constrained to be constant or allowed to vary over years. Models were ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion weights (AIC c ) and model probabilities were computed. There was some model selection uncertainty and the best model had a 0.619 probability of being the so-called true model for the parameters estimated. The best model produced the best estimated average annual survival over the 5 yr study at 0.375 (SE = 0.324, 95% CI = 0.252–0.516. A more robust multimodel inference was made by averaging the seven models, producing an estimated average annual survival of 0.382 (SE = 0.068, 95%CI = 0.246–0.518). Post hoc analyses of five additional models incorporating Iranian sailfish catch data as covariates showed no relationship between the Iranian catch and survival probability, but did show a positive relationship between the Iranian catch and recovery probability, suggesting that if catch was high then recovery probability was also high.
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Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: 01 November 2006
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