Assessing the climate risk degree of wheat-corn double cropping system based on date processing and images

On the basis of ecological theory of niche-fitness and fuzzy mathematics methods, the climate suitability model was established. With comprehensive crops climate suitability and the probability distribution, the risk model was established. On the above basis, the dynamic risk analysis and evaluation were made for the wheat-rice cropping system. At the same time, combined the IPCC A2 climate circumstances, the climate risk was simulated for the wheat-rice cropping system in the Huaihe River Basin in the following 30 a. The results showed that the risk index varied from 0.15 to 0.50. The main reason was that the precipitation suitability was low, and the standard deviation was big. So the main method to avoid the risk was to improve the water control and adjust the system. The special distribution of climate risk index mainly increased from the east coastal area to the west mountain areas, the reasons were the precipitation decrease from the east to the west and the inland climate factors varied more frequently. In the last 45 years, climate risks index increased for the rice-wheat double cropping system, with main reason that the sunshine strength increased sharply. The highest climate risk trend was in the southwest areas, and decreased in the east and the north areas. In the future climate circumstances, climate risk index (from 0 to 0.02) will have apparent decrease for the rice-wheat double cropping system.