Driver celeration behaviour and accidents - an analysis

A theory of changes in speed of a vehicle (termed 'celerations') as an overall measure of driver behaviour regarding the control of the vehicle, and as a predictor of traffic accidents, is described. The driver behaviours that result in speed changes of vehicles are speed, close following, braking and steering control actions. Assuming that all speed change indicates risk, several testable predictions follow. The most important of these is that there is a positive association between drivers' celeration sum and their accidents. Formulas for the measurement of celeration and the association with crashes are presented, as well as methodological principles for this. Relevant literature is reviewed, as well as the tests of various hypotheses undertaken so far. The suggested way of measuring driver behaviour and predicting accident involvement would be useful in many kinds of studies of driver behaviour, and also for testing and screening purposes and especially for large-scale monitoring of professional drivers.