A sequential analysis method for the prediction of tropical hurricanes

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Abstract:

Transition processes between different situations in the ocean-atmosphere system are studied by means of the methods of sequential analysis. An instability indicator is introduced to be used as the generalized characteristics of the state for this system. The indicator is evaluated based on the data obtained from the TAO/TRITON&PIRATA system of anchored buoys and other meteorological stations located in the tropical zone of the World's oceans. It is shown that the combination of sequential and cluster analysis with the percolation model allows the detection of a tropical hurricane 1-2 days in advance of its initiation.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01431160801927228

Affiliations: 1: Moscow State Technological University 'STANKIN', Moscow, 127994, Russia 2: Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia 3: Division of Electronic Engineering and Physics, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK 4: University of Athens, Faculty of Physics, Department of Applied Physics, Laboratory of Upper Air, Athens, Greece

Publication date: May 1, 2008

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