Predicting future duration from present age: a critical assessment

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Abstract:

Using a temporal version of the Copernican principle, Gott has proposed a statistical predictor of future longevity based on present age (Gott III, J. R., 1993, Nature, 363, 315) and applied the predictor to a variety of examples, including the longevity of the human species. Although Gott's proposal contains a grain of truth, it does not have the universal predictive power that he attributes to it.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/001075100181105

Publication date: May 1, 2000

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