A Hierarchical Participatory Methodology for Tactical Decision-making Based on a Decision-analytic Model for Balancing Timber Stock
A methodology is presented which solves local management problems by combining a timber procurement model with decision analysis and heuristic optimization. A hierarchical participatory method resolves the difficulties of the timber-flow model based on dynamics and system balance theories applying to the tactical management process of policy selection. The methodology was developed for team/group decision-making on the assumptions of bounded rationality, imperfect mill service information and lagged inventory adjustment. The experiments analyze the logistics of timber-flow changes. Although the most important objective of the tactical policy of an organization has been to satisfy the timber demand of the mills at minimum cost, the work group in this study was also able to decide utilizing the criteria of the mill service: (1) local managers responsible for transportation preferred a larger roadside inventory stock; and (2) a manager responsible for supervision of logistics preferred a higher level of aggregate inventory turnaround. In the first participatory stage of the method, the criteria for aspiration levels, which determined the group managers' goal as a combined aspiration point, were described. In the second stage, to avoid problems, participatory inventory models and a decision boundary were used in the management process. In this tradeoff analysis, heuristics provided equal hierarchical consideration and commensurate goals. Since the experiments showed that consideration of local managers' needs in predicting feasible buffer stocks may reduce possible conflicts in decision-making, the applied theories and the methodology of this study were useful in establishing balanced policies for tactical management situations.
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