Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective
Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has
been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been
neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models,
regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few ‘known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.
Keywords: Climate change; crop simulation model; food production; impact projection; uncertainty
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Lönnrotinkatu 5 FI-50100, Mikkeli, Finland 2: Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Vakolantie 55 FI-03400, Vihti, Finland 3: Climate Change Programme, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), P.O. Box 140 FI-00251, Helsinki, Finland
Publication date: 01 December 2012
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