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A Multiple State Model for Disability Using the Decomposition of Death Probabilities and Cross-Sectional Data

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We split the components corresponding to the disability-free survival probability, and the disability survival probability. Our analysis is conducted for men and women separately, for age groups over 64 years. We discuss the estimation of a multiple state model under several scenarios when only a single survey of cross-sectional data is available. The conclusions are used to discuss the disability level of the Spanish elderly population and are helpful to develop welfare programs and insurance products.

Keywords: Disability-free; Long-term care; Longevity; Transition probabilities

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610920500203752

Affiliations: 1: Departamento de Economía Aplicada y Organización de Empresas, Universidad de Extremadura, Extremadura, Spain 2: Departament d'Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

Publication date: January 1, 2005

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