A Statistical Analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its Impact on European Temperature

Authors: Werner A.; Schönwiese C.D.

Source: The Global Atmosphere-Ocean System, Volume 8, Number 4, 1 January 2002 , pp. 293-306(14)

Publisher: Taylor and Francis Ltd

Abstract:

In this study the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its impact on the surface air temperature in Europe 1891-1990 is analysed using statistical time series analysis techniques. For this purpose, both the NAO index (NAOI) and the surface air temperature time series from 41 European stations are split up into typical variation components. Various measures of correlation indicate that the NAOI-temperature relationships are approximately linear and most pronounced in winter. The spatial correlation patterns show a correlation decrease from North West to South East (winter) exceeding correlation coefficients of 0.6 in the Scotland-South Norwegian area. In summer, these correlations are very weak, in spring and autumn stronger but smaller than in winter. These correlations change significantly in time indicating increasing correlations in Central and North Europe and decreasing correlations in the North West. Low-frequent episodic components represented by related polynomials of different order are very outstanding in both NAO and temperatures showing up in all seasons, except summer, relative maxima roughly 1900 and in recent times, relative minima in the beginning (ca. 1870) and roughly 1960-1970. Periodogramm analysis reveals a dominant cycle of 7.5 years (NAOI and a majority of temperature time series) whereas in case of the polynomial component one may speculate about a 80-90 year cycle.

Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation; Temperature; Periodogramm analysis

Document Type: Research article

Affiliations: 1: J.W. Goethe University, Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics, P.O. Box 11 19 32, D-60054 Frankfurt a.M., Germany

Publication date: 2002-01-01

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