Predictive Model for Motorcycle Accidents at Three-Legged Priority Junctions

Authors: Harnen S.¹; Umar R.S.R.¹; Wong S.V.¹; Hashim W.I.W.²

Source: Traffic Injury Prevention, Volume 4, Number 4, December 2003 , pp. 363-369(7)

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Abstract:

In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.

Keywords: Cross-Sectional Analysis; Generalized Linear Models; Junction Geometry; Junction Treatment Criteria; Motorcycle Accident Models; Motorcycle Accidents

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/NO_DOI

Affiliations: 1: Road Safety Research Center, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia 2: School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

Publication date: 2003-12-01